What’s happening?
Bendigo Bank’s 2026 Australian Agriculture Outlook report sets out how the early part of next year is likely to play out. The report shows how weather and the wider economy will shape farm output and pricing across beef, crops, dairy, sheep, wool and horticulture.
Eliza Redfern, Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Senior Manager Industry Insights, kept the message clear.
“Seasonal risk and economic uncertainty remain at the forefront, but the outlook for Australian agriculture is broadly positive as we move into 2026.”
She said strong export demand is one of the key supports.
“Beef production is tipped to drop slightly from the high volumes seen in 2025, and strong demand especially from an export perspective is likely to keep prices firm.”
Winter crop production for 2025 and 2026 is forecast at 62.3 million tonnes, a rise of 12 per cent from mid year. Western Australia is driving this lift, with a 26 per cent increase, or about 5 million tonnes.
Why it matters?
Queensland relies heavily on cattle, horticulture and grain. Stable demand gives producers some confidence as they head into the new year, even as high production costs and shifting weather patterns remain a risk.
Redfern said lamb and mutton demand stays strong.
“The recent run of strong prices is expected to continue into 2026 due to firm demand and the tight supply environment.”
Local impact: Queensland
Queensland enters 2026 with several steady signals.
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Cattle markets look firm due to strong export interest. Processors remain active and are likely to keep prices supported.
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Queensland winter crop production reached 3.8 million tonnes, five per cent below last season after a dry start cut back earlier yield potential.
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Macadamia producers benefit from lower global supply, though China’s expanding production may pressure prices later in 2026.
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Avocado yields look stable, with Shepard volumes expected to finish about 10 per cent higher.
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Milk production has lifted early in the season. The pace has eased, but full year output is likely to remain steady.
By the numbers
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Queensland winter crops reached 3.8 million tonnes, five per cent down from last season due to the dry spring.
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Australia’s winter crop forecast is 62.3 million tonnes, a 12 per cent lift from the mid year estimate.
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Western Australia added about 5 million tonnes to national forecasts after a sharp turnaround in conditions.
Zoom in
Queensland’s cattle industry continues to lean on strong overseas buyers. With export orders steady, local saleyards remain competitive. Grain growers wrapped up harvest early, with only late November showers causing delays. The extra moisture helped prompt more sorghum planting.
Fruit and nut growers in the state, including macadamia and avocado producers, expect good volumes. But input costs remain a major concern, especially for vegetable growers who face higher irrigation charges.
Zoom out
Across the rest of Australia, the same mix of high costs, seasonal swings and strong export demand shapes the outlook.
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New South Wales growers report good yields, but irrigation-heavy sectors still feel margin pressure.
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Victoria and South Australia are dealing with slow harvest starts that lifted short term grain prices.
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Western Australia is tracking towards a record grain year at more than 26 million tonnes.
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Tasmania is set for solid vegetable output and stable milk production.
The wool industry nationwide is seeing price support due to reduced supply and improving demand from China, though political tensions keep long range outlooks uncertain.
What to look for next?
Queensland producers will be watching rainfall above all else. Export demand is solid, but a dry turn could place pressure on cattle prices and limit crop potential. If conditions hold, the state should see a stable start to 2026 across most sectors.
