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Strong harvest outlook but price pressure for sugar

https://www.pexels.com/photo/freshly-harvested-sugar-cane-stalks-in-field-33740520/
Photo by Carbell Sarfo | Source: Pexels

What’s happening?

Sugar industry is heading into the 2026 season with strong crop potential, but global prices remain weak.

AgForce Cane President Chris Punzell said the season is unfolding with solid production prospects across Queensland, despite a persistent global surplus.

Local mills are preparing for mid year crushing with confidence in crop quality. Weather conditions have improved, supporting yield expectations across the region.

However, future sugar prices are described as dismal. Rising input costs and soft international markets are placing pressure on grower margins.

There has also been renewed discussion around diversification. Recent submissions from sugar millers, cane farmer bodies and development groups have pushed for stronger support for biofuels and renewables under a feedstock study.

Punzell said if these proposals are accepted and implemented, they would improve sustainability for cane farming and milling. He added this would also deliver broader benefits to national security and the economy.

AgForce Cane continues to advocate for stronger competition efficiencies, transparency and accountability in the sugarcane supply chain. This includes mill performance, season length, crush scheduling and cane payments.

A review of the Sugar Code and the cost-effectiveness of compulsory levies on growers and millers is also being pursued.

Access to reliable and affordable water remains central to long term viability for cane growers. Farm data sovereignty and data protections are also becoming key issues as emissions and supply chain reporting requirements expand.

Punzell said 2026 is an important year for stakeholders to become involved, especially with sugarcane likely to be subject to an industry review. He noted the sector has not had a review for a long time.

Chris Punzell, AgForce Cane President.

Why it matters?

Mackay is one of Queensland’s major sugar regions. A strong crop season supports local jobs, transport, trade and small business activity.

But strong yields do not guarantee strong returns. A global sugar glut continues to suppress prices.

Diversification into biofuels and renewables could provide new income streams for Mackay’s mills and growers. It may also strengthen regional resilience if global prices remain volatile.

An industry review could reshape how the supply chain operates, directly affecting local growers and mill performance.

Local impact

For Mackay growers, 2026 presents both opportunity and risk.

Healthy crops may translate into solid crushing volumes at local mills. Yet profitability will depend heavily on global pricing.

The Mackay Sugar and Ag Trade Expo at the Mackay Showgrounds on 17 and 18 April will bring together heavy machinery, rural supplies, farming equipment, irrigation systems and drone demonstrations.

Events like this support local suppliers and service providers, while giving growers practical tools to improve efficiency.

Greater grower involvement through AgForce may also ensure Mackay voices are heard during any industry review.

By the numbers

  • Up to 50% of Queensland is covered by AgForce’s membership footprint, highlighting its statewide reach and influence.

  • Two grower director positions are being sought from each region as part of the current Expressions of Interest for the Cane Board.

  • Two major industry gatherings are locked in for 2026, including the Next Gen 2026 Cane Forum on 3 and 4 March in the Herbert and Burdekin areas, and the Mackay Sugar and Ag Trade Expo on 17 and 18 April.

Zoom in

Mill performance, season length and crush scheduling remain key concerns for growers.

Cane payments and transparency across the supply chain are central to farm profitability. A review of the Sugar Code and compulsory levies could influence cost structures and accountability.

Farm data sovereignty is also emerging as a national issue. As reporting obligations expand, growers want clarity on how their operational data is managed.

Zoom out

Globally, surplus production continues to weigh on sugar prices. Growers compete in an international market shaped by supply and demand beyond local control.

Strong export demand from Asia offers some support. However, price volatility remains a structural challenge.

If biofuel and renewable initiatives receive policy backing, sugarcane could play a broader role in Australia’s energy and economic mix.

What to look for next?

Watch for outcomes from the feedstock study and any government response to biofuel proposals.

Monitor developments around the expected industry review and what it means for Mackay’s mills and growers.

Participation in the April Mackay Sugar and Ag Trade Expo will also signal how prepared the region is for change.

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