What’s happening?
Residents in Mackay are being urged to prevent mosquito bites this summer after new research linked warmer temperatures to higher Ross River Virus risk.
The scoping review was led by the University of Adelaide and published on 17 December 2025 in the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health. The review mapped studies from across Australia and found increased outbreak risk, particularly in Riverland and coastal regions.
Researchers also identified a major knowledge gap around how temperature affects Ross River Virus notifications in inland Australia. The study analysed existing research rather than new case data, focusing on how temperature trends relate to virus risk.
Why it matters?
Ross River Virus is one of Australia’s most common mosquito-borne diseases and can affect quality of life. Symptoms include rash, fever and joint pain, known as arthralgia.
While most people recover within weeks, joint pain can persist in some cases. The virus can be spread by more than 40 mosquito species.
Animal hosts can include kangaroos, wallabies, bats, horses and dogs. Predicting outbreaks remains difficult due to multiple environmental factors.
Local impact
The review found that maximum temperatures are linked to higher Ross River Virus cases in coastal Queensland.
Mackay was specifically listed among affected locations, alongside Brisbane, Cairns, Townsville, Gladstone, Bundaberg, Redland and the Darling Downs.
Other regions identified included North-East New South Wales, the Sorell region in Tasmania, and Mandurah in Western Australia.
Minimum temperatures were also linked to increased risk in Darwin and some inland areas of South Australia, Victoria and Queensland.
By the numbers
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Around 3,000 Ross River Virus cases are reported across Australia each year, showing its ongoing public health impact.
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30 studies were analysed in the scoping review to assess links between temperature and virus risk.
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Risk increases when temperatures range between 17 and 31 degrees, with infections spiking around 26 degrees.
Zoom in
“Studies found that maximum temperatures are linked to higher Ross River Virus cases in coastal Australia, particularly in Queensland,” said lead author Christina Mary Varghese from the School of Public Health, University of Adelaide.
“Some studies found that minimum temperature appeared to increase the risk of the Ross River Virus infections in Darwin and in some inland regions of SA, Victoria and Queensland,” she said.
“It is very hard to predict Ross River Virus outbreaks, with a complex range of factors contributing to increased risk, including rainfall, humidity, and stagnant water conditions.”
“But we know that cases are more likely when temperatures are between 17 and 31 degrees, with infections spiking when temperatures are around 26 degrees. That’s why it’s important for Australians to protect themselves from mozzie bites over the Christmas and New Year period.”
Zoom out
The study also examined Barmah Forest Virus, another mosquito-borne disease.
Researchers found infection risk was linked to minimum temperatures in both coastal and inland areas.
“One of our biggest findings was that studies of Ross River Virus and Barmah Forest Virus have mostly centred on the coast,” Ms Varghese said. “There is very little data on smaller towns and few related to Ross River Virus in Queensland.”
Senior author Professor Peng Bi said the research exposed gaps in understanding future disease risk.
“There has been no Australian-based study assessing associated healthcare costs, nor projecting future disease burden under different climate change scenarios,” Professor Bi said.
“This is a key knowledge gap that needs to be addressed.”
“We need to better understand how our changing climate is going to influence risk in different regions. We also need to fill the big gaps in research across inland Australia – so we can track how things change over time.”
Public Health Association of Australia CEO Terry Slevin said the new Australian Centre for Disease Control, launching in January, will need to monitor these risks.
“As the Australian weather warms due to climate change, we are likely to see different parts of Australia exposed to mosquito-borne diseases like Ross River Fever and Barmah Forest Virus,” Mr Slevin said.
“Australia’s Centre for Disease Control will be monitoring these issues and is already providing advice on mosquito bite prevention.”
Christina M Varghese is supported by The Hospital Research Foundation Group Public Health scholarship.
What to look for next?
Australia’s Centre for Disease Control is due to officially launch in January and will monitor mosquito-borne disease risks across regions, including coastal communities like Redland.
Researchers are calling for more studies into inland infection trends, healthcare costs, and the impact of climate change on future outbreaks.
The Australian Centre for Disease Control is already providing advice on mosquito bite prevention, including wearing light coloured clothing, using mosquito nets, and applying repellent to exposed skin.
