What’s happening?
This April 2025, Bendigo Bank Agribusiness released its latest Monthly Commodity Update, offering a mixed but insightful snapshot of Australia’s farming sectors. While beef and wool markets remain strong and resilient, croppers and horticultural producers—especially across Queensland—face new hurdles due to soggy soil, market uncertainty, and international trade shifts.
Neil Burgess, Senior Manager Industry Affairs at Bendigo Bank Agribusiness, noted that despite global challenges, some commodities are showing solid performance.
“The imposition of the ten per cent US tariff is expected to translate into only a minimal reduction of Australian beef export volume to that market… At this stage, the only limiting factor to exports is the processing capacity of local centres due to supply chain issues.”
Why it matters?
Mackay’s farming community relies heavily on livestock and horticulture. The update reassures producers that international demand for beef and wool remains robust—even as tariffs and freight delays loom. However, prolonged rain threatens to delay vegetable planting, potentially squeezing local supplies and incomes. The sector’s resilience will depend on adaptability and how the April-May weather patterns unfold.
Local Impact
The Mackay region’s beef producers are well positioned, with cattle prices supported by strong overseas demand—especially from the US, despite new tariffs. Wool growers also have cause to celebrate with steady supply and rising returns. Yet the rain that boosts pasture growth also hampers vegetable planting across Queensland, including Mackay, which may impact crop availability and pricing later this year.
Furthermore, supply chain disruptions continue to hinder the efficient processing and transportation of livestock—an issue that could slow revenue flows even in a bullish market.
Fast Facts Summary:
🐄 Beef:
Beef prices rose in March, peaking at 371c/kg. Even with the new US tariff, exports remain strong. Demand is high, but local supply chain issues are slowing processing. Prices may rise slightly through April.
🌾 Cropping:
Rain in Queensland and dry conditions elsewhere are shaping the season. Barley and canola exports are ahead of schedule, but wheat is falling behind. Wheat prices could drop if China’s demand stays low.
🥛 Dairy:
Milk prices are around $8.25/kg MS, but national production fell by 4.8% in February. Dry weather in Victoria, SA, and Tasmania is to blame. The season’s forecast sits at 8.3 billion litres. Demand for beef may keep dairy-related cattle prices stable.
🥬 Horticulture:
Heavy rainfall across Queensland is delaying vegetable planting. This could cause less supply and higher prices over the coming weeks. Citrus exports may benefit from disease issues in Florida, but a weak Chinese economy is a risk for fruit and nut growers.
🐑 Sheep:
Lamb prices are holding steady at 803c/kg, up +6.6% from the five-year average. Processing remains strong but dry paddocks in SA and western VIC limit growth. Supply may drop mid-year, which could hold prices firm despite US tariff pressure.
🧶 Wool:
The wool market is up, with the AWEX EMI now at 1,249c/kg, a +9.4% rise year-on-year. Reduced supply and a lower Aussie dollar help support prices, though global trade tensions could cool demand.
🌱 Climate & Carbon:
The red meat industry is working toward carbon neutrality by 2030 through the CN30 plan. Emissions from red meat have dropped 78% since 2005, and Meat & Livestock Australia has invested over $152 million in climate-smart farming solutions.
Zoom In
Beef remains a bright spot for Mackay and other Queensland producers. “Beef export volumes to the USA are expected [to] continue at high levels… The only limiting factor is the processing capacity of local centres,” Mr Burgess reiterated.
While cattle prices remain below average, they are forecast to rise slightly through April, supported by improving weather and high international demand.
In the wool sector, prices climbed for five out of six weeks, reflecting solid demand and limited supply.
“The Australian wool market has gained ground… The EMI gained 54 cents since the last selling week in February and is now up +9.4% from this time last year.”
Despite slight downward pressure expected in April due to trade tensions, the weaker Australian Dollar may soften the impact and keep prices supported.
For grain growers, the outlook depends largely on rainfall.
“Weather will remain in focus as we head into the seeding window, particularly across southern cropping regions where conditions remain critically dry,” Mr Burgess said.
Zoom Out
Australia’s agricultural landscape is facing a convergence of challenges—weather instability, shifting global trade flows, and processing bottlenecks. Horticulture producers in Mackay are finding it difficult to get crops in the ground due to persistent rainfall, with autumn plantings already behind schedule.
Fruit and vegetable wholesale prices are surging. The broader east coast index now sits well above last year’s figures, impacting household budgets and potentially reducing purchasing power for consumers.
Meanwhile, the dairy sector reports declining production due to dry conditions in southern states. Although southern farmgate milk prices have lifted to around $8.25/kg MS, national production is still 0.1% below last season’s pace.
What To Look For Next?
Keep an eye on the April and May rainfall figures. These months are crucial for planting decisions and will shape future supply and pricing, especially for grain and horticultural producers. Also monitor how the ten per cent US tariff evolves, as its full impact on consumer pricing and global trade dynamics continues to emerge.
Wool auction rooms and beef processors will closely watch for any downstream effects of tariff-related demand changes, particularly from China and Europe.
